Archive for the ‘ Future ’ Category

How Global Warming Will Play Out

Early on in Issac Asimov’s prelude to foundation he mentions how the empire’s capital ended up living on a completely domed planet. Between this and many other science fiction novels the consensus is that on a planet with uninhabitable climates, colony’s will have to live somewhere artificially maintained (Living in domes).

Then it clicked, scientists have said for a long time that if we don’t reduce our footprint lots we are going to reach a “point of no return” where our climate is completely ruined. They also have given specific levels that need to be achieved (Or Else), however the worlds governments have completely dismissed these levels, saying that it is impossible to reduce it that much.

My conclusion, we have no hope.

We are definitely, 100% in the future going to live on a world where the natural climate cannot sustain life (Except for the extremely tough). But it probably isn’t going to be so bad.

It probably won’t be instantaneous like in the day after tomorrow. But may take a few generations from being able to go outside frequently to the summers being unbearably hot and winters being terrible storms.

So we will keep doing as we are doing, we will gradually start staying inside more as outside becomes more “uncomfortable”; they will create undercover parks (Like the professional stadiums) so people can enjoy the outdoors without dealing with the terrible weather. Underground roads (and subways) will become more common because exposed roads will become dangerous more often, and Innovation will be driven by the demand to avoid the uncomfortable climate.

Then a generation will grow up without ever really going outside.

At this stage they won’t care about the whole outdoors concept, all us people who say “you need to go outside and see some sun” will sound like old people whining about the  “Good ol days”.

Then they will start building these “domes”. They will be small at first, slowly get bigger as the technology develops. The cost of tall buildings will skyrocket (Because they are more exposed, low ceiling domes cheaper etc). Which will further drive the technology of underground buildings.

Because most people will live in a small area (The domes), the concentration of people will reach a point where public transport will be incredibly efficient (Just like in Japan).

Then its a clear path towards the whole world living in these artificially maintained climates.

Gradually is how the global warming issue will play out.

The third option.

There are a few paths our world can go down. I used to believe that there were mutually exclusive options of destroying ourselves or enjoying the benefits of the technological singularity.

But there might be a third option, we could drain all the worlds important resources leaving nothing for distant generations to come.

Society might regress into a pre-iron ore era. Where the only tools we can make are those using the most common of materials.

I doubt it will happen, but it is interesting to think about.

Them vs Us

George Carlin wrote a lot about how the ‘big world’ is messed up beyond repair, how the system is so bad that it actually isn’t fixable..

And you know what, he is right, there is no way for an individual to fix anything that is wrong with our big world (The social problems) without burning themselves out before prior to making any impact at all. But he phrases it like it is us vs them. Like somebody decided that this is the way it should be because it works out better for them.

I disagree with this point, I think that the ‘system’ that is jerking us all around is a manifestation of some of the less popular human traits. Things like our tendency to go for short term gains rather than long term progress, our selfishness, and our own stupidity.

I think that it is a statistical certainty that someone in our world will get lucky and own the exact resources needed for control, and once this ‘random’ person (It could be you) gets into control, they just do what they always do, promote their own self interests.

And this has caused all the awful things like global warming, wage slavery, stupid laws (see software patents) and corruption within the authorities.

Unlike Carlin, I think there is a chance that we can pull out of it. But it wont be the result of any individual or group effort. The slim chance of us pulling through and achieving eutopia will come from 2 things, technology and open source (Or maybe copyright piracy).

There has been constant increases in efficiency since humans have started innovating. The pyramids were built with thousands of people, skyscrapers are now build with dozens. We are forever needing less labour to achieve the same amount of technical difficulty. The only catch is that we need exponentially more information (Data) to finish these projects.

The thing about labour is you need people to do it, people are expensive, and they need to do things that they don’t want to do. Information on the other hand is cheap and easily copied and reused.

Eventually labour will be completely eliminated to achieve ultimate efficiency. You can see this with the 3d printers, although they are pretty ordinary at the moment, they are heading towards being able to print anything as easily as you can print a text document.

Once this happens the cost for physical things approaches zero, you can just print it out anytime. However information becomes the main cost (Buying the blueprints for your car). This is where open source comes in. If you can find freely made blueprints there will be no costs to own anything because you print them out for the price of their weight in dirt.

This changes capitalism at its core, if resources aren’t limited then there is no fundamental economic problem.

This allows every human to redirect their focus from survival to self actualisation, leading to a new age of enlightenment.

Following the mould

There are plenty of smart people in this world who have followed the conventional wisdom of going to school, getting good marks, and getting a good job. There are also plenty of smart people who have not followed this wisdom, who wasted their potential and achieved nothing with their lives.

If you were to sample both these groups and compare how happy each group as a whole were, which group would you think would be happier?

The answer is, they would both be equally happy. There would be some really happy people and some really miserable people in both groups.

Now there might be a really smart guy who is working really hard in a ‘good’ job, but his boss is brutal and causes this guy to be really stressed. There might be another really smart guy, who gave up everything to become a painter but only enjoys moderate success in this area, many people criticize him but he is happy.

So in comparing the two, who has actually wasted their potential?

********

Mind you comparing a happy person from both groups is a different matter (But one took less effort)

The Future is Awesome

If you look at tech blogs long enough you stumble upon a heap of ideas that entrepreneurs and engineers are trying to build. Sometimes it is scary how advanced we actually are.

The words presented by the ReCaptcha validation tool used to be really easy to guess, but recently I have found myself often clicking for a new word because it literally is just scribble. The only conclusion is that optical character recognition software is reaching the point where words that can’t be recognised are actually illegible.

Similarly there are statistics that voice recognition software has accuracy ratings of nearly 99%.

So when I saw the kickstarter project for programmable lights I immediately thought that it would be cool to make all the lights in my house voice activated. The following thought I had was “Holy Crap this is the future” (my thoughts then trailed to the scene in I, Robot where Susan Calvin couldn’t work Will Smiths sound system because it wasn’t voice activated).

I can’t help but feel technology has sneaked up on us, it took 50 years or so to go from the Wright brothers plane to jet engines. What will be the next metaphorical jet engine to be perfected in 2060?

On Being Easily Influenced

It is kinda shameful to admit that every-time I watch a film or read a book I tell myself “I could do that”. Like I finish a travel book and I immediately want to go to every country, or I finish reading Steve Jobs biography and say “I could build an amazing electronics start-up”.

The problem is not that I can’t do these things, but more that I don’t have enough time in this world to do everything I want to.

And that is the question that stumps me so often, what do I do with the limited time I have?

Back again

Coming back to Australia after the warm days and nights in Thailand has actually been pretty nice. Thailand is amazing, I definitely feel a little changed from the experience but as usual coming home to nice food and a comfy bed always a good way to end an adventure.

The most interesting perspective I gained came from being the countries definition of “Upper Class”. The attention you receive because you are western results from the assumption that you have money (Which you do), and they have much to gain by giving amazing customer service. The change in treatment really makes you appreciate what you have.

But being back means it is time for me to focus a little on my future. I need a day job so I can work towards my next long-term goal:

1) Having the skills necessary for game development on the Ouya when it is released.

Considering my starting skill set I feel that it is a pretty relaxed goal for the deadline (6 months) but it is at this sort of level where I believe I will be able to call myself an “intermediate”.

I will probably reward myself afterwards with another overseas experience which is something to really look forward to.

Good times ahead

Goal Review

When I first moved back home after graduating (29th of June) I wrote out a few short term goals that I wanted to accomplish before I left to go travelling. I had originally given myself 3 months to achieve these but I changed my mind on when I wanted to leave, giving myself 2 months instead.

Here are the goals I wrote down:

1) Financial;
Save up an extra $3,000 – $4,000 for Trip.
2) Fitness:
Weigh 85kg and still have ABS (<10% bodyfat). Have consolidated the gains by doing high rep training (Endurance).
3) Learning:
i) Have read books and gained an elementary understanding in Chemistry, Biology, Contract Law, Employment Law, Investment Science and Mathematics.
ii) Further progress in programming. Finished tutorials, Read CPU and Assembly. Redo Python. Learn Android development and look into the game programming tutorials.

So to review:

1) The financial goal was a complete failure. I didn’t end up getting a job, mostly because I felt bad that I would only be around for a couple months. I did keep down my expenses however so I didn’t lose to much money.

2) Fitness was reasonably successful. I managed to get to 80kgs (Starting at 70kgs), I am probably a little above the 10% bodyfat (abs are there but only just) but I didn’t really get around to the consolidation training (If that is even a thing which I am not too sure about anyway).

3) Learning was pretty good. With a bit of discipline I managed to cut out television and video games (Mostly) and my spare time was dedicated to reading.

i) Although I did read 200 pages of an introductory Chemistry textbook, the science topics tried to learn mostly through Khan Academy Video’s and Crash Course youtube. The Law subjects I couldn’t find a good textbook for so I never got around to it. I have a couple Investment books I need to read still, and I read an introductory book on Mathematics.

I did deviate a bit reading a few books outside these area’s. These included Steve Jobs Biography; his favourite book – Autobiography of a Yogi (Which was really spiritual and an area I hadn’t really ever looked into);  A few books on Philosophy. And I got into the history documentaries on youtube.

ii) I was actually really glad I was able to get back into my programming. I got half way through my tutorials before getting stuck (problem with virtualising the operating system which I couldn’t do much about). I Read 2 books on CPU’s and Assembly/Machine Code. 2 more books on introductory Python. And I am currently a third of the way through an introductory android development book.

Misc other things I did:

Pulled apart an engine, started meditating (Which I need to do more), and kinda importantly I got my head around what I was going to do with my life (Transitioning from College life to the real world).

For the future:

I want my programming skill to increase further, the ouya comes out mid next year and I would like to be able to make Indi games on it. This will require finishing my book on android development, then another on android game development. Some stuff on web development and I need to look into the whole games engine topic (I have a good tutorial on game development with direct X which I think will work). Also some stuff on IT administration might be important.

I am also really liking the philosophy books, I want to read more of these and start writing about philosophical ideas.

Anyway I am pretty happy with the progress I made over the last 2 months, I probably should have worked, It wouldn’t have interrupted my other goals too much plus more money for travelling would have been nice.

 

Growing old

Watching inception again I noticed that I have a weird reaction to the idea of Limbo. So the main character Codd mentions that he was stuck in limbo for 50 years, also the rich Japanese businessman, Mr Saito, gets stuck down there and grows old before being rescued..

Right so I hear that Codd spent 50 years there and I go “50 years!! It sucks that I can’t grow old then become young again”.

Imagine how much time you would have to dedicate to literally everything imaginable. You could read every philosophical book, become incredibly wise, then become an amazing at *insert activity here*.

I mean becoming wise is awesome and hopefully one day I will stop being an immature child, but I don’t want to lose the openness and confidence associated with youth! Nor do I want my body to become fragile.

I really really hope they invent anti-aging drugs sooner rather then later.

 

 

 

 

Visa applications

The world is so distrusting. I applied for my first Visa today and the effort required is intense. How the hell are we supposed to start populating new solar systems and planets in the near future if the effort to travel within our own planet is so difficult?

I get the whole security and terrorists thing but hasn’t that argument held us back for too long? I mean if ‘cracking down’ on bad people and increasing security worked then the prisons wouldn’t have illegal substances inside. Prison guards have all the time in the world and are allowed to be as intrusive as possible yet somehow stuff always slips through.

Now if the ‘ideal’ security situation can’t stop the flow then what hope does anything less ideal have.

Eventually we are going to have to be gone with all the crap that is associated with international border crossing and we will have to stop thinking of ourselves as individual countries, rather we need to become a unified planet.

We used to have this stuff when crossing state borders before the Federation of Australia and we look back and say “Why did all that pointless harassment exist over something so little?”  I believe future people will look back on Visa’s and airport security and think the exact same thing.

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