just wait and see

So google has been testing out “driver-less cars” for a few years now and I think the estimate is they will be available to the public in 5-10 years. This invention feels like a major paradigm shift; with little implementation it could be optimised to solve an incredible amount of problems, Best example is you could call up your car (Siri) and tell it to come get you.

Interestingly this would eliminate much of the need for taxi drivers, and public transport (no longer requiring drivers) would be much cheaper. Of course there are many benefits like less crashes (Without the human element everything is better) but I wanted to show the impact on public transport.

So I did some number crunching.

• I assumed that fuel efficiency for a bus is 39L/100km
• The free shuttle bus in my city drives 95 hours a week
• Bus drivers are paid $25 an hour (Good Old Australia)

Anyway with a bus driving 95 hours a week at an average speed of 35km/hour (Taken from my car’s trip computer for city driving), it will drive 3,325km a week. At 39L/100km this translates to 1,296L of Diesel; At $1.50/L petrol costs $1,945.12 a week.

I simply guessed this, with the Bus cost amortized ($75,000 over 10 years) and maintenance costs ($2,500), Overhead costs would be approx $10,000 a year.

Then at $25 an hour, the bus driving 95 hours a week, salary cost would be $2,375 a week.

With these expenses the yearly cost would be $101,150 (Fuel) + $10,000 (Overhead) + $123,500 (Driver) = $234,650.

This is the cost of running a single Bus per year.

Now the interesting part is that wages cover 53% of this cost and with driver-less cars this cost would be removed completely. In essence:

Total cost halving would have serious implications. The public transport market (supply) would become flooded. Then as a result there would be cheap public transport… Imagine the social consequences.

Now I believe that driver-less cars would lead to innovation in other areas (Maybe flying cars become feasible without everyone needing a pilot’s license) but in this single area (the public transport industry) the technology has massive effects.

Yeah the future is gunna be awesome.